Election 2026 · Housing market · Pennsylvania & Florida
The Big Blue Wave. Now What? What the 2026 Election Could Mean for the Housing Market
Updated November 6, 2026 · By Ken Hoffmaster, REALTOR® · Election results are preliminary until officially certified.
Democrats have won control of the U.S. House and Senate, according to Associated Press race calls. The political map changed. But does that mean home prices will fall, mortgage rates will drop, or buyers should sit tight?
The honest answer: Nobody knows exactly what’s going to happen. If someone could reliably predict every turn in the housing market, they’d probably claim they could predict the stock market, too. We all know how that goes. Forecasts are educated estimates, not guarantees—and a national election does not magically reset the price of a house in Pottsville or Cape Coral.
Politics can matter to real estate. That’s why I watch it along with mortgage rates, inventory, economic reports, taxes, insurance and what buyers are actually doing. The part I can help you with right now is what the market is doing today—and what that means in your neighborhood.
The headline—and the important fine print
The Associated Press called Democratic control of the Senate on the night of November 3 and the House early November 4. Individual races can continue to be counted and certified. The newly elected Congress takes office in January 2027, and the president remains a separate part of the federal lawmaking process. Winning Congress does not mean any party can immediately dictate mortgage rates or home values.
First, let’s look at the housing numbers—not the political slogans
30-year fixed mortgage
7.18%
Freddie Mac · Nov. 5, 2026
U.S. active listings
+7.4%
Year over year · Oct. 2026
U.S. median asking price
$415K
Down 2.2% year over year · Oct.
Sources: Freddie Mac PMMS (Nov. 5) and Realtor.com October 2026 housing report. National figures are not a substitute for Pennsylvania or Florida neighborhood-level sales.
Mortgage rates: down this week, but not necessarily cheap
Freddie Mac’s national 30-year fixed average was 7.18% on November 5, compared with 7.24% one week earlier, 6.37% six months earlier (May 7) and 6.22% about one year earlier. That’s an improvement from last week—not proof that an election created a lasting downward trend. Rates also reflect inflation expectations, bond yields, the broader economy and individual borrower/loan details.
For illustration, on a $300,000, 30-year fixed loan, principal and interest alone would be approximately $2,032 per month at 7.18% versus $1,871 at 6.37%—about $161 a month apart. This excludes taxes, homeowners insurance, mortgage insurance, HOA fees and other costs. Rates quoted to actual borrowers vary.
See the current mortgage-rate page for the latest information rather than treating this November 5 snapshot as a permanent quote.
Inventory is growing, but buyers and sellers are still cautious
Realtor.com’s October report recorded about 1.18 million active U.S. listings (+7.4% year over year), a $415,000 median listing price (-2.2%), a 63-day median time on market, and price cuts on 20.5% of active listings. That suggests more choices for some buyers, but not every community is experiencing the same shift.
The National Association of REALTORS® reported that September existing-home sales rose 1.5% from August while remaining 2.2% below the previous September. Its median completed sale price was $417,500, up 1.3% year over year. Why is that different from Realtor.com’s falling median asking price? They’re different datasets covering different homes and transactions. Mixing them together would tell the wrong story.
So what are housing experts saying?
- Freddie Mac: Its November 5 report describes a third consecutive week of lower mortgage rates, a positive development for prospective borrowers—not a guarantee of continued declines. Read the release.
- NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun: In October, Yun emphasized that elevated mortgage rates were weighing on buyer demand and home-showing activity. That puts affordability, not a party’s win alone, at the center of the discussion. Read NAR’s report.
- Realtor.com researchers: Their October report points to rising available inventory, fewer newly listed homes, and longer marketing times—a housing market in which both sides are pausing and reassessing. Read the research.
- Fannie Mae’s economic research team: It publishes monthly scenarios for prices, sales and mortgage rates, while explicitly noting that projections depend on assumptions and can change. A forecast is worth watching, not betting your life savings on. See the forecasts.
Yes, politics affects markets—but here’s how
- Housing policy and taxes: Congress can debate tax provisions, federal housing programs and incentives that could influence demand or supply. Whether anything becomes law, what it contains and when it takes effect are separate questions.
- Confidence and business decisions: Some households and investors delay major moves during uncertain policy periods; others go ahead because their personal needs haven’t changed.
- Bond markets and inflation: Mortgage rates often move with longer-term borrowing costs and economic expectations. They aren’t set by a House or Senate vote, and a one-week rate change cannot be assigned confidently to one political event.
- Local costs and construction: Property taxes, zoning, permitting, insurance, labor and materials may affect affordability and new supply. Many of these decisions are state and local—not simply federal.
What could happen next? Three scenarios—not predictions
If financing gets easier
Some qualified buyers may regain purchasing power, potentially adding competition in markets with limited desirable homes.
If rates stay elevated
Affordability may keep buyers cautious, and correctly pricing, preparing and marketing homes becomes especially important.
If local supply grows
Buyers may gain negotiating room, while sellers need to understand competing listings and recent comparable sales.
No scenario is guaranteed. All three could play out differently by price range, town, neighborhood or property type.
Pennsylvania and Florida: the market around you matters most
A closer look at the local numbers
Pennsylvania: The statewide median sold price was $315,000 in September 2026, up 6% from a year earlier, even though it fell 4.5% from August. The Pennsylvania Association of Realtors also reported 46,549 active listings. That is a mixed market—not evidence that an election automatically sent prices in one direction. Source: Pennsylvania Association of Realtors, Oct. 21.
Southwest Florida: In September, the median existing single-family sale price was $375,500 in the Cape Coral–Fort Myers area (up 0.1% year over year), $785,000 around Naples (up 1.6%) and $344,000 in the Punta Gorda area (up 4.2%). Those markets vary tremendously even within one region. Source: Florida Gulf Coast University, using Florida Realtors data.
These are September figures published before the November election. They provide a baseline—not evidence of what the election caused.
In Pennsylvania, a starter home in Schuylkill County may face different buyer demand from a larger home in Berks County or a house with unusual title, utility or repair concerns. In Florida, insurance, flood exposure, condo and HOA obligations, property taxes and the amount of local inventory can weigh heavily on the numbers. A national television headline can’t price your home.
If you want a starting point, visit my Pennsylvania and Florida community guides or browse the real estate market news hub. I can then help you narrow the question to an actual neighborhood and property.
Frequently asked questions after the 2026 election
Will home prices crash because Democrats won the House and Senate?
There’s no evidence that control of Congress by itself guarantees a crash—or a boom. Prices respond to local supply, jobs, financing, household demand and the condition and appeal of individual homes.
Will mortgage rates automatically fall after the blue wave?
No. Rates had fallen to 7.18% as of November 5, but that does not establish the election as the sole cause or indicate where rates go next. Compare live lender offers and consider the full monthly payment.
When will the newly elected Congress take office?
The new congressional term begins in January 2027. Election-night projections and official state certifications are different stages; policy changes would require further action.
Should I wait until 2027 to buy a house?
Maybe—or maybe not. It depends on your financing, how long you’ll stay, your budget, local selection and what you’re paying to rent. Waiting could bring a better opportunity, but it could also mean different rates, prices or competition. Compare real numbers rather than a headline.
Should I wait to sell my house until after the new Congress starts?
Not automatically. A decision should reflect recent comparable sales, current competition, condition, carrying costs and your personal plans. Sometimes preparing now matters more than guessing a future market.
Does a falling national asking price mean my Pennsylvania or Florida home lost value?
No. A national median asking price is not a value estimate for your property. The mix of homes listed can change, and sale prices in your immediate market may behave differently.
How can I find out what my house is worth today?
Ask for a comparative market analysis (CMA), which examines local sold properties, competing listings and your home’s details. It’s a pricing tool, not a professional appraisal. Here’s my plain-English guide: CMA vs. Appraisal—What’s the Difference?
Does the election change property taxes or closing costs immediately?
No blanket nationwide change follows automatically from a congressional election. Specific tax laws, local assessments, county fees and transaction costs depend on jurisdiction and any laws that actually take effect. Ask a tax professional about personal tax consequences.
Can you help if I’m buying or selling outside Pennsylvania or Florida?
I’m licensed to provide real estate services in Pennsylvania and Florida. For another state, I may be able to connect you with a qualified local professional through a proper referral arrangement. I won’t pretend I’m licensed everywhere.
Here’s what I can tell you: what’s happening in your market.
Want to know what similar homes sold for on your street? Curious about the value of your house or whether buyers are negotiating in your neighborhood? I’ll explain the current data, not promise the future.
Ken Hoffmaster, REALTOR® · Pennsylvania & Florida
Request a free comparative market analysisContact Ken with a question
Or call/text (570) 968-5414. No pressure. No crystal ball. Just an honest conversation about the numbers.
Ken Hoffmaster, REALTOR®
Pennsylvania real estate services with Iron Valley Real Estate – Keystone
The brokerage logo is displayed in its original colors and proportions.
Sources and data notes
- Associated Press: Calling Control of Congress in the 2026 Midterms (Nov. 4).
- Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (Nov. 5); historical weekly rates (May 7).
- Realtor.com October 2026 Housing Report (Nov. 4).
- National Association of REALTORS®: September Existing-Home Sales (Oct. 13).
- NAR: Mortgage Rates and Buyer Demand (Oct. 2026); Fannie Mae forecasts.
This article discusses public information as of November 5, 2026; election counts, rates and real estate conditions change. Rate examples are illustrations, not financing offers. Real estate values and decisions are property-specific. Ken Hoffmaster, REALTOR® · PA license RS362822, Iron Valley Real Estate – Keystone · FL license SL3566866, Jason Mitchell Group Florida Express+ · Equal Housing Opportunity.
